Last updated on May 5, 2025
From the 2014 annexation of Crimea to the stalemate of 2025, this post examines the conflict’s history, the motivations behind Russia’s invasion, the stances of neighboring countries, the present military situation, and the potential outcomes and peace efforts.
History of the Conflict (2014–2022)
The Russia-Ukraine war trace back to 2014, when Ukraine’s pro-Moscow president was ousted following mass protests, and Russia responded by seizing and annexing Crimea. In eastern Ukraine, Russian-backed separatists declared breakaway “republics”, starting an armed conflict that claimed over 14,000 lives by 2021. The Minsk agreements of 2014–2015 froze most of the fighting but never fully stopped the violence. Tensions rose as Ukraine signed EU agreements and developed NATO ties while Russia built up forces.
In February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, designed to topple the pro-Western government of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Russian tank columns attacked from multiple directions, even reaching the outskirts of the capital, Kyiv. Russia failed to capture Kyiv thanks to Ukraine’s fierce resistance, causing Russian forces to pull back. The war then concentrated in the south and east: Russia captured cities such as Mariupol while Ukraine, helped by Western-supplied weapons, counterattacked and liberated areas including the city of Kherson. By the end of 2022, the conflict had become the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II.
Causes of the Invasion
Multiple and complex reasons explain Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has always denied Ukraine’s legitimacy as a separate nation, arguing that Ukrainian people are not distinct from Russians. Putin claimed a duty to protect ethnic Russians in Ukraine as justification for aggression. Putin also saw Ukraine’s drift toward the West as a humiliation
Geopolitically, Russian leaders are resentful of NATO’s enlargement into former Soviet-aligned states, viewing it as a betrayal of supposed promises and a security threat on Russia’s doorstep. In late 2021, Putin insisted that NATO retreat from Eastern Europe. Putin then framed the invasion as a response to NATO’s refusal to retreat, seeing this as a pretext to invade Ukraine.
Domestic Russian political factors also played a role. A short victorious war would boost Putin’s prestige just like the 2014 bloodless Crimea annexation sent his approval ratings from 60% to 80%. The war enabled a crackdown on opposition and independent media at home, consolidating Putin’s authoritarian rule.
Positions of Neighboring Countries: Poland, Belarus, and the Baltic States
Russia’s aggression in Ukraine has dramatically alarmed its neighbors. Poland turned out as one of Ukraine’s strongest supporters, seeing Ukraine’s fight as critical to its own security. Poland quickly sent military aid and heavy weapons to Ukraine even when other partners hesitated. Millions of Ukrainians fleeing the war found refuge in Poland. In contrast, Belarus – Ukraine’s northern neighbor – has aligned itself with Moscow. Its President, Alyaksandr Lukashenko, allowed Russian troops to use Belarusian territory to invade Ukraine in 2022. The Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) are also strong supporters of Ukraine. These small NATO members remember Soviet occupation, so they see Ukraine as their own first line of defense. They have also significantly improved their own defenses.
The Military Situation as of April 23, 2025
Over two years into the full-scale war, the conflict has become a grinding, struggle where no side is achieving a decisive breakthrough. As of April 2025, the front lines have shifted only marginally in recent months with heavy casualties. Both Russia and Ukraine face significant constraints and strengths in this protracted war of attrition.
Armaments and logistics
Russia still maintains an artillery and ammunition edge. Moscow has significantly ramped up its military production over the past two years. Factories are running 24/7 shifts with defense spending increasing to an estimated 7.5% of Russia’s GDP, producing about 250,000 artillery rounds per month. However, its stock of high-precision missiles has been depleted by waves of strikes on Ukrainian cities, and sanctions make it hard to acquire high-tech components for guided weapons.
Ukraine, on the other hand, relies on Western-supplied weaponry and ammunition for defense and offensives. Over 2022–2025, NATO countries delivered anti-tank missiles, HIMARS rocket systems and howitzers, and by 2024 Ukraine received modern tanks and air defense systems. But Ukraine’s logistics depend on the West’s willingness to continue shipments. The West is working to scale up its own production by revitalizing its domestic arms industry. Ukraine’s logistics benefit from secure supply routes to NATO territory allowing training, repairs, and stockpiling in Poland and elsewhere.
Manpower and recruitment
Both sides have mobilized very large numbers of troops. Ukraine has been under full mobilization since 2022. However, after more than two years of continuous fighting, Kyiv has had to redouble its draft efforts in 2024 by lowering the draft age and digitizing records. Morale among Ukrainians remains high overall. Ukrainian forces are increasingly professional and Western-trained.
Russia only gradually committed to full-scale mobilization. Initial invasions were carried out by contract soldiers and elite units, many of which were gutted in 2022’s battles. In 2023–2024, Russia continued recruiting aggressively, setting a target of 400,000 new contract soldiers in 2024. Western officials estimate Russian casualties (killed or wounded) have exceeded 600,000 since 2022. Russia’ has theoretically a deeper manpower pool (population ~140 million vs. Ukraine’s ~40 million pre-war), but motivation is poor. Ukrainian fighters are highly motivated and increasingly equipped with Western training and leadership.
External support and impact
The United States, NATO, and EU partners have provided billions of dollars in military aid, intelligence support, and economic assistance to keep Ukraine’s state and army running. Western intelligence satellite and drone imagery has helped Ukraine target Russian forces. There are current signs that Western support to Ukraine may weaken. Russia has fewer allies but has received important assistance from Iran (which supplied hundreds of drones), and North Korea (which sent munitions in exchange for diplomatic favors or food aid. Belarus has likely transferred older tanks or missiles. Chinese companies are accused of providing electronics and drones.
Possible Outcomes of the War: Scenarios and Consequences
After more than two years of war, there are several possible scenarios. A recent analysis by Chatham House identified four broad scenarios: a “long war,” a “frozen conflict,” a Ukrainian victory, or a Ukrainian defeat.
“Long war” – a protracted war of attrition.
In this scenario, active fighting continues for years without a clear winner. Such an extended conflict would see Ukraine continuing to resist, incurring ever greater human losses and economic damage, while Russia also absorbs huge costs and casualties in hopes of outlasting Western support for Kyiv. The longer the war drags on, the more it tests Ukraine’s unity and the patience of its allies, but also the more it strains Russia’s military and economy under sanctions.
“Frozen conflict” – a ceasefire without peace.
This outcome would involve a halt in active combat while leaving the political conflict unresolved. This scenario may stabilize the front lines, but without any agreement on disputed lands or Ukraine’s geopolitical status. Both sides would regroup and rearm. Ukraine would never accept the loss of its territories while Russia would dig into the areas it occupies. This scenario would turn the conflict like Korea or Kashmir, resulting in continued economic sanctions on Russia, and Ukraine’s NATO aspirations on hold, with the risk of renewed hostilities at any time.
Ukrainian victory – Russia is repelled.
In the most hopeful scenario for Kyiv and its allies, the balance of power shifts in Ukraine’s favor. This could happen if Western countries increase military aid This may trigger a political crisis in Moscow, potentially leading to Putin’s removal. Under these circumstances, Russia might eventually accept normalized relations, Pessimists worry that a russian defeat could trigger nuclear options.
Ukrainian defeat – Russia imposes its terms.
Under this scenario, Russia would break Ukrainian resistance, through military conquest or collapse of the Ukrainian military. This could only likely happen if Ukraine’s allies curtail aid or push Kyiv to capitulate. A Ukrainian defeat may force Kyiv’s government to accept Russia’s maximalist demands: no NATO/EU alignment, a Russian veto over Ukraine’s military decisions, and returning all territories claimed by Russia, including Crimea and the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions. Putin could install a puppet leadership in Kyiv. This would only be conceivable if Western military aid dries up and Ukraine is left isolated, A Russian win would embolden Moscow (and other aggressive regimes), severely threatening NATO countries bordering a Russian-controlled Ukraine.
Other Scenarios
Other scenarios could include a partial victory or partial defeat where Russia could keep Crimea and some Donbas territory while Ukraine would retain sovereignty over the rest, overlapping the “frozen conflict” scenario.
Another possibility is an escalation beyond Ukraine’s borders. If Russia were to use a tactical nuclear weapon, it could trigger a possible NATO intervention. There’s also the chance of political shifts such as a change of leadership in Moscow, Washington, or other key capital.
Negotiations and Paths to Peace (April 2025)
Diplomatic proposals for ending the war continue in the background. As of April 25, 2025, there are no formal peace negotiations underway. Ukraine’s position has hardened after Russian atrocities and annexations. Ukraine insists that its proposed 10-point plan calling for Russia to undo its invasion is the only acceptable basis for ending the war. Russia under Putin is unwilling to accept those demands, claiming that any peace settlement must recognize Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea and over parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. Moscow also insists that Ukraine must renounce joining NATO and accept a neutral status.
In March 2022, Russia and Ukraine met in Turkey to discuss a framework where Ukraine would consider neutrality under security guarantees, while Russia would withdraw to pre-invasion lines. These talks collapsed.
In 2023, Turkey brokered a grain export agreement and prisoner exchanges, By 2024, Pope Francis and others also offered to mediate, though without concrete results. In early 2025, Donald Trump signaled an interest in brokering a deal with Putin. Reports in March–April 2025 indicated that U.S.-Russia discussions were occurring. A tense meeting in late February 2025 between Trump and Zelenskyy led to a temporary pause in U.S. military aid, causing the Baltic states and Poland to panic. So far, Zelenskyy has reiterated that no peace can be made over Ukraine’s head, The UK and France said that they are drafting a plan for a ceasefire to be monitored by a joint peacekeeping force.
April 26, 2025: President Trump meets President Zelenskyy at the Vatican
On April 26, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a 15-minute private meeting at St. Peter’s Basilica in Rome, ahead of Pope Francis’s funeral. The discussion focused on the possibility of a ceasefire in Ukraine. Both leaders described the conversation as “very productive.” Following the meeting, President Trump openly expressed doubts about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to end the war, following intense russian bombing across several Ukrainian cities, causing significant civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Some consider Trump’s statement as a strategic bargaining tactic designed to bring Putin to the negotiating table.
A Complex Issue…
The Ukraine-Russia war is a multifaceted geopolitical conflict driven by territorial disputes, national sovereignty, economic and global power dynamics. Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO and the European Union are perceived by Russia as direct threats to its sphere of influence. Sanctions against Russia are designed to weaken its economy but have resulted in affecting energy prices and supply chains worldwide. The humanitarian crisis including mass displacement and civilian casualties, adds another layer of complexity,
These factors have turned the war into a broader conflict between Western liberal democracies and authoritarian regimes, making it one of the most complex geopolitical crises of the 21st century.
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